Los casos de coronavirus subieron un 65% en una semana en la Argentina

Los casos diarios notificados de coronavirus crecieron por novena semana consecutiva y aumentaron un 65% esta semana respecto de la anterior, en tanto que las internaciones en Unidades de Terapia Intensiva (UTI) pasaron de un promedio de 575 a mediados de noviembre a 717 estos últimos siete días.

La semana de menor cantidad de casos fue la correspondiente al período entre el 8 y el 14 de octubre con un promedio diario de 814 notificaciones; pero desde entonces aumenta en forma sostenida y en la última semana se incrementó un 65% pasando de 2.222 reportes diarios promedio en la semana del 3 al 9 de diciembre a 3.682 entre la del 10 y el 16″, describió a Télam el físico e investigador del Conicet Jorge Aliaga.

Aliaga, exdecano de Facultad de Ciencias Exactas de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) y actual secretario de Planeamiento y Evaluación Institucional de la Universidad Nacional de Hurlingham, señaló que los casos se encuentran en aumento en varias jurisdicciones como Tucumán, Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Neuquén, Río Negro, Provincia de Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe y Mendoza.

“En Tucumán se habían llegado a notificar 50 casos diarios a principio de octubre y actualmente se están informando un promedio de 494; la Ciudad de Buenos Aires logró un piso de 120 reportes por día también a principio de octubre y esto últimos siete días tuvo un promedio de 700 casos diarios reportados”, detalló.

Según sus cuadros elaborados a partir de los casos notificados, en Neuquén se pasó de un piso de reportes de 11 casos diarios a principios de octubre a 96 actuales; en Río Negro de 22 casos en la tercera semana de octubre a 100 ahora; en Provincia de Buenos Aires de 391 reportes diarios en la segunda semana de octubre a 1.402 estos últimos siete días.

En Córdoba los reportes diarios también aumentaron pasando de 112 casos promedio durante la primera quincena de octubre a 330 esta última semana, mientras que en Santa Fe se pasó de 28 notificaciones a 135 en iguales períodos.

“Los promedios de internaciones de persona con Covid-19 en Unidades de Terapia Intensiva no crecieron al ritmo de los casos pero hubo un leve aumento. La semana de menos internaciones a nivel nacional fue del 19 al 25 de noviembre con 575 pacientes con Covid-19 y esta última tuvimos un promedio de 717 pacientes en UTI reportados”, describió.

Y añadió que “si ordenamos las personas fallecidas por fecha de inicio de síntomas también se registra un incremento muy leve”.

El investigador recordó que de acuerdo a lo ocurrido en las olas anteriores “sobre todo cuando se producen cambios en la tendencia de la curva, a partir de que comienzan a aumentar los casos el impacto en las terapias intensivas se observa 15 días después mientras que en las personas fallecida se ve entre 20 y 30 días más tarde”.

“No obstante, teniendo en cuenta las altas tasas de vacunación que tiene la Argentina se espera que haya un desacople entre el aumento de casos y las personas hospitalizadas y fallecidas, es decir, aunque se van a incrementar no lo deberían hacer en la misma proporción que la cantidad de personas contagiadas reportadas”, observó.

Como evidencia del impacto de la vacunación en la reducción de casos graves, esta semana se presentaron dos estudios que analizaron las características de las personas internadas en UTI.

Uno fue difundido ayer por el Ministerio de Salud bonaerense y reveló que el 62% de las 416 personas internadas por coronavirus al 10 de diciembre no estaban vacunadas, mientras el 14% solo había recibido una dosis.

“Según este estudio, mientras que los no vacunados representan sólo el 20% del total de la población bonaerense, en el universo de esos pacientes con coronavirus en UTI son el 62%, y mientras que las personas vacunadas con dos dosis constituyen el 70% de los bonaerenses, son sólo el 26% de las personas en cuidados intensivos con coronavirus”, describió Aliaga.

En referencia a las personas internadas con sólo una dosis, son el 10% de la población de la Provincia y entre los internados en UTI representan el 12%.

“Si uno mira los números sólo de UTI el porcentaje de internados con dos dosis es mayor que con una, pero esto no es porque una dosis sea más efectiva, sino porque la cantidad de personas vacunadas con dos dosis es sustancialmente mayor que la vacunada con una, entonces esto hace que haya más internados con dos dosis”, sostuvo.

En la misma línea, el miércoles la Sociedad Argentina de Terapia Intensiva (SATI) dio a conocer una encuesta voluntaria realizada sobre 102 centros de distintas ciudades del país que arrojó que de 66 pacientes en UTI con Covid-19 “sólo uno tenía las tres dosis de las vacunas (1,7%); 22 tenían las dos dosis (36%); ocho tenían una sola dosis (13%) y 29 pacientes estaban sin vacunar (48%)”.

Sobre el escenario epidemiológico el investigador del Conicet, Rodrigo Quiroga, afirmó que se está “frente a un aumento sostenido pero lento de casos en el país por la variante Delta y frente al surgimiento de Ómicron que está produciendo enorme crecimiento de casos en Córdoba, pero su impacto sobre internaciones y fallecimientos es difícil de estimar dado que la información disponible de otros países es escasa y reciente”.

“Creo que sería prudente tomar algunas medidas para frenar la propagación de ambas variantes”, indicó el bioinformático de la Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (UNC).

Sobre eventuales medidas gubernamentales, Quiroga sostuvo que “aunque será difícil explicarle su necesidad a la sociedad, comerciantes y empresarios, permitiría frenar el aumento de casos una restricción de los eventos masivos, limitar las reuniones puertas adentro a 25 personas o menos y la nocturnidad, y posiblemente volver a restringir el aforo puertas adentros en comercios, shoppings, supermercado, bares”.

“El objetivo de estas medidas sería dar más tiempo a terminar con las segundas dosis pendientes y colocar dosis de refuerzos, incluso hasta esperar si se necesitan dosis específicas para Ómicron”, señaló.

Y continuó: “A nivel individual es clave acercarse a completar esquemas, vacunar a niñas, niños y adolescentes, darse el refuerzo si pasaron cinco meses, pero también hacer todo lo posible en espacios abiertos o con buena ventilación y sostener el uso del barbijo. También creo que sería muy prudente reducir la frecuencia y tamaño de las reuniones sociales, en particular si queremos pasar una Navidad lo más tranquilos posible.

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